Hi! Today we will be exploring the significance of “Preflop 4Bet Success Rate in Relation to Timing Ranges”. If you are unfamiliar with our timing tell study, we strongly suggest you refer to the first article which can be found here: Online Poker Timing Tell Study Results Part 1 – 3Bet Success Rate in Relation to Timing Ranges
The stake for review is $2/$5 NL 6max Zoom games on PokerStars. The current sample size we obtained for this stake is about 125,000 hands.
There are two theories we had before analyzing the data for this trend.
1. The quickest 3Bets are likely to receive fewer folds to 4Bets in comparison to the overall fold percentage.
If a player is multi-tabling and they pick up a premium hand with the chance to 3Bet, they will do so quickly in order to move to the next table and decision.
2. Longer 3Bets are likely to receive more folds to 4Bets in comparison to the overall fold percentage.
Players who take a long time to 3bet are likely debating whether or not they should 3bet a marginal hand. They are checking things like their opponent’s fold to 3bet%, other various HUD stats and current game flow dynamics.
As in the previous study, we used the 3Bet timing median, 7.09 seconds, as a reference point to define a quick and long bet. Below are the results of our theories applied to the sample set:
Interested in seeing the results only applied to regulars? See our blog post here: Online Poker Timing Tells – Regulars vs Weaker Players
From the data shown, you can see that there is a correlation between very quick actions compared to long actions. Specifically, there is about an 11% edge gained in 4Bet bluffing a long 3Bet and an 18% edge lost in 4Bet bluffing a very quick 3Bet.
To spare you from math (please reference the first article’s example for details), we will list the calculated edge gained/lost assuming a 3BB RFI, 9BB 3Bet, a 2.22x sized 4bet bluff and that your opponent will only fold or go all-in.
Please note that we do not advise any player to start 4Bet bluffing every 3Bet of 10.09s+ or to never 4Bet bluff a quick 3Bet. However, this timing read is a powerful filter, that when added to your arsenal, can provide a boost to your win rate and confidence.
Thanks for reading and we hope you enjoyed the article!
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