Hello! Today we will be exploring the significance of “Raising Flop Cbet Success Rate in Relation to Timing Ranges”. If you are unfamiliar with our timing tell study, we strongly suggest you refer to the first article which can be found here: 3Bet Success Rate in Relation to Timing Ranges
The stake for review is $2/$5 NL 6max Zoom games on PokerStars. The current sample size we obtained for this stake is about 170,000 hands.
Unlike the previous two studies, we only have one theory for this data set:
The quickest Cbets are likely to receive fewer folds to raises compared to the overall fold percentage.
A player who quickly Cbets is likely to have a ‘standard’ Cbetting hand, which means they think their opponent will fold a high percentage of the time or they have a made hand or draw. The Cbettor in this instance is less likely to fold to resistance.
As in the previous studies, we used the Cbet timing median, 6.5 seconds, as a reference point to define a quick and long bet. Below are the results of our theories applied to the sample set:
From the data shown you can see that there is a correlation between very quick actions compared to longer actions. Specifically there is about a 20% edge lost in bluff raising a very quick Cbet.
If you are looking to do a one and done type bluff raise, then this is an excellent trend for you to use to increase your overall bluff raise success rate.
Another way to utilize this trend is when you have a strong hand and can’t decide if you want to raise or slow play. Since an opponent who Cbets quickly is less likely to fold, you may want to consider raising in a spot you normally wouldn’t. Not only does this help balance your range, but it makes you tougher to play against and may get you more value than you are used to.
Thanks for reading and we hope you enjoyed the article!
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